The Big Overview

So it's been a month since I posted, I almost don't know where to start.

So first off let me apologize for the absence, it's never my intention to go leave without saying  but I had a string of events.

My computer had a failure so I had to get it repaired and I end up using the profits from my poker, which started the absence. Work was a bit unusual for the month of February, where my schedule was really just messed up. Further more, when I did got back into playing, my PT4 just wasn't recording data properly. PT4 support was slow to respond and it took a long time to really solve things, so there was so many reasons keeping me from updating you all. Was finally able to get the data in though.

Last but most importantly, February and this month hasn't been a good month when I did play, so I was bit on the discouraged side playing, and because I end up using the profits to repair my computer (since i only use it to poker with now anyway), I end up dropping down in stakes and all that so all that really just wasn't good for me mentally.

So here is my yearly results so far, as you can see its pretty obvious where I moved down in stakes on the graph and as you can see, with everything that went on, I still had to deal with the variance part of the game, where I just got owned completely by variance. 

This month, I haven't been playing as much as well I am intending to slow down a bit and regain my motivation to play. 

The Update about No Update?

So this week was a bit more trial and error, as I was researching and moving about, trying to conquer all the good things poker can offer outside the tables. Well what I discovered is things don't always go as smoothly. I encountered problem after problem, and it even had me re-evaluating alot of things.

First off, since the discovery of the rake issue, I came across a better understanding about online poker. For one, there aren't much site that is cheaper than 888 to play on except for Full Tilt and Pokerstars. This was also news to me since I am now paying more attention to these things after seeing just how it affects my winrate, so it makes sense why in general alot of people are attracted to the big market like Pokerstars and the reason Full Tilt is cheap is because its own by the same people that own Pokerstars (According to the online articles).

So what does this exactly did for me was first, it made me consider playing on Full Tilt or Pokerstars but there are some personal issues outside of the logical reasons that kept me away. Do note, these personal issues contributes to my comfort playing on these 2 sites.

The biggest reason Competition: Now this here had me stumbling over rocks and climbing mountains trying to think about if I want to be playing on sites where the competition is greatly that much better. In my previous post "Beware of the rake", I mentioned about just studying and becoming better than my competition, well there is a fine line there that I really didn't get much into because I wanted it to be a simple message. The fine line for me is that fish/reg/really good reg ratio. How often will i run into fishes on these sites? How often will I run into the regs that I can beat? How often do I run into the regs that are just ridiculously tough?

Variance: This tops my personal issue by far because it may be just me or not, but I been playing poker for a few years and for sure Pokerstars and Full Tilt aren't rigged, but I experienced some of the greatest EV differential on these 2 sites. What I mean is, in the past, when I run bad, I mean it's the worse run bad I could imagine. On the flip side of things, when I ran good, it was almost like I could blindly close my and shove any 2 and get a good. I've had monster upswings before with EV being really low and I had monster downswings with EV being high. Not saying it's not possible anywhere else, but I never had such swings like mentioned anywhere else except at Pokerstars and Full Tilt. It crushes my confidence on bad days and then give me that sense of false hope on others. Its really a roller coaster of emotions for me, and while all in all, it all balances out, It's not comfortable for me and playing else where avoiding these big roller coaster results helps alot.

 My Goal: My Goal still remain the same to obtain a 8% ROI at HUSNGs but if I go to these sites, I may have to reconsider what is the best thing to do because there are just tons of regs that I have to compete with where having a winrate is obviously good, but 8% on there might be looking at some deeper study and methods than before. The most important thing here besides reconsidering is doubting myself, I don't want to have enter a field to doubt if my goal is reasonable and lose that confidence.

Besides my personal issues, the logical choice would seem by far to play on Pokerstars and Full Tilt.

I'll be honest though, at first I was thinking about staying on Full Tilt, I played a bit, didn't run too good but I had a bigger issue. PT4 wasn't importing properly, I lacked informtion and lack my results. The support team and I went back and forward trying to fix it, but it seems to be something wrong with my system or something that isn't an easy fix. All in all, I still left Full Tilt because of my personal issues and I don't want to play no where, where I can't have keep records, how am I suppose to accomplish my goals without the basic of necessity?

With help from Pokerstrategy, I ended up joining 24h Bet on the Microgaming Network.

Can't escape the rake issues but at least I'll be getting better rakeback and faster withdrawals but lose having to deal with traffic.

There is one problem that still haunts me though.

My PT4.......

Well it works almost fine except, it incorrectly imports the wrong details of the tournament, which means my results are not showing the way it suppose to be showing. Well the support team and I will probably become good friends with all these problems I keep encountering, it's rather very exhausting and if I can't really solve it, I might just go back to 888poker and just be grateful that at least here my only problem is their loyalty program, which I hope I don't have to do.

Beware Of The Rake! Important Message

So this is a follow up from yesterday's post where I started to talk about the loyalty rewards a little more deeply, and as I followed up with really diving into loyalty programs I came across some information that caused to me to move from 888poker immediately and I wanted to share some light on this matter.

For once as a HUSNG player, I was always aware that rake cuts into your winrate and you should be looking to get the best deals and so on. However, things change once you start diving into the volume aspect of the game. So despite me being a HUSNG player, anybody who is serious about putting in decent amount of volume should pay very close attention to what I have presented below.

First of all, I have been diving into getting good a deal as far as rakeback and loyalty programs could offer. This in a vacuum, kept me from seeing something that I didn't see too well.

Rake: 

We all know the talks about rake, etc. Some of you may be more aware than others (and me) and some may not, but how many of us truly knows how much does rake affects our win rate? I actually took my January results and crunch some numbers up (trying to figure out good loyalty deals for rakeback) but instead got some shocking information about the site I am playing on instead. For one, I anticipated something like this, but never imagined there was such a huge difference.

The first mistake that I made was never paying close attention to the exact amount of rake being raked.

On 888Poker:

$5 HUSNG: $4.55 + $0.45
$10 HUSNG: $9.10 + $0.90

On Full Tilt:

$5 HUSNG: $4.77 + $0.23
$10 HUSNG: $9.45 + $0.45

As you can see, while I knew 888poker was raked higher, I was unaware that it was DOUBLED the amount of the top tier site. This may be because we only hear about rake in the form of % and we really don't dive into the number aspect of things, but keep reading it gets more interesting.

Below are my results from January playing $5 games and $10:

I will be using my $10 games to illustrate a powerful point, but before that the original goal here was to see how much of a difference the rakeback from the loyalty programs of 888poker and Full Tilt would be and how it would affect my winrate. Here is my information:

888Poker 

190 Games: $9.10 + $0.90 = $1,900

Rake: $171.00 (190 Games x $0.90)
Rakeback: $7.70 (4.5% - Silver)

Win: 104 ($1,892.80)

= $1,892.80 - 1,900
= -$7.20 + Rakeback ($7.70)

=$0.50

-----------

Full Tilt

190 Games: $9.45 + $0.45

Rake: $85.50
Rakeback: $8.55

Win: 104 ($1965.6)

= $1965.60 - $1900
= $65.60 + Rakeback ($8.55)

= $74.15

-------------------------

The Sad Truth is, I haven't even calculated the different levels of the loyalty reward program on Full Tilt and on 888poker you have to climb like 3 other status with a rakeback of 2.5% just to earn Silver's 4.5% Rakeback. The loyalty program of 888poker always bugged me but this might cause me never to want to play on 888poker again, more importantly, this caused me to be 100% more alert about picking different sites I play on.

The overall results:

So here is the thing, I did that for the $10 games, what about the $5 games and my win rate? Well I had to see for myself just how much money I was causing myself. For this, because midway I was earning 2.5% Rakeback under Bronze status then started to earn 4.5% rakeback under Silver, I will just calculate everything under Silver for the sake of the point that I have that (Even though PT4 doesn't show rakeback).

Here is the results:

888Poker:

594 Games: $4.55 + $0.45 = $2,970

Rake: $267.30 (594 Games x $0.45)
Rakeback: $12.03 (Silver - 4.5%)

Win: 349 ($3,175.90)

= 3,175.90 - 2,970
= 205.90 + Rakeback ($12.03)
= $217.93

Full Tilt:

594 Games: $4.77 + $0.23 = $2,970

Rake: $136.62 (594 Games x $0.23)
Rakeback: $13.66 (Bronze - 10%)

Win: 349 ($3,329.46)

= $3,329.46 - $2,970
= $359.46 + Rakeback ($13.66)
= $373.12

ROI w/o Rakeback:

888poker:

$5 Games: 6.93%
$10 Games: -0.38%

Overall: 4.08%

Full Tilt:

$5 Games: 12.10% ROI
$10 Games: 3.45% ROI

Overall: 8.73%

(Note: For those who may not know, to calculate ROI: (Profit/Total Amount Spent) x 100)

==================

So basically, all this time I been fighting for a 8% - 10% ROI that I see top players been obtaining at the micros and little that I knew, it wasn't me that was the problem (well not entirely me, I still do want to improve) but it was the site I play on that was the problem.

Now of course this doesn't take into account of the competition difference and traffic between the sites but by looking at the data there, the difference is too huge and I rather just study to better than the competition on another site than to play on a softer site where rake dominates the "edge" I thought I would have by playing a softer field.

As of today, I will be on Full Tilt, until I finish check out other sites and more properly too. I will make probably do a report later on for any of you guys who are considering playing any form of SNGs.

For all those players out there, especially playing on other smaller or new sites, make sure you are aware of how rake is affecting your winrate. It might not make a huge difference for those who don't put in no volume and play like once a week, but if you plan to be playing online poker for a little while then consider how rake can affect your numbers in the long run because you can't take back volume you put in and I would hate to see any of my fellow players out there after months of hard work looking at their results like I did, just to figure out you could have made much more for your time only if you had played else where.

For all those players playing cash games or even live poker, it may not be as simple to figure out how much rake is affecting your games like it is for us tournaments players, but it is definitely possible to still figure out so put some time an effort in making sure you truly understand the numbers and do not just assume like I did. Do the research and make sure you are not hurting yourself in the long run.

Exploitative vs Unexploitative Learning Curve

So if you haven't noticed but the strategy I have been using so far is more Unexploitative & math based. For the most part this clarified a lot of things for me, such as what is the correct play but more importantly it help drew a vivid and solid picture for how I can exploit later on.

I want to be the first to recommend that if you are looking to improve your game, this may be the route you want to take, by getting into the unexploitative game style numbers on HUDs starts to make a lot more sense and spots become a lot more easier.

So as I continue to work on my Unexploitative game I want to purchase the Coffeyay Heads Up HUD to maximize my exploitative game. I'm beginning to understand so much more about what type of hands should be continuing and how it relate to combos. So far the most exploitation I been doing in my game came from Preflop only and look at my results so far. I am thinking that to have 10% ROI and higher, I will need to strengthen my unexploiative knowledge and my villians would bluntly let me know exactly which spots they are making mistakes in.

Betsizing:

This have been the key for all mathematical decisions. Opening sizes, cbet sizes, etc. There is an important theory I have developed that I will be putting into full practice later on:

(Learn more about my ratio by checking at Red Chip Poker under Doug's Range Construction Video Series)

Based on range and ratio:

I came with this theory that bet-sizing should probably be different every street as my ratio of value:bluff changes. Each street has a larger sizing which sets up a nice dynamic on the river. This is really the default bet-sizing plan I have in play now.

However bet-sizing will probably change under certain circumstances: 

Capped Range: Usually when I say Capped Range I am specifically talking about a spot where Its hard to have the monsters on previous streets because they would be in a different range (For eg. Check flop and turn, makes it hard to have Top pair or 2 pair). However in a spot where I have a capped range but improve to a value hand (For eg. Check 2 streets with A2 on K726 and facing a river card 2 or A), I typically would consider an overbet here. Thing is, its not common to run into a player who slow plays too much, and in a spot where my default image is to be a big better I can level players who isn't thinking about my range too much into calling. At this point the pot will usually be pretty small, especially if early on in the match so it isn't super scary as stack threatening or anything.

Exploitative Value-Only Range:  Let's say I am in a spot where villain usually folds more than he should on the turn but decided this time he calls my turn bet. This is an exploitative spot where he is more likely to have a hand he can call with and usually this would be a spot to not have a bluffing range but based on my hand strength I will size my bet differently, being weaker hands = smaller bets and stronger hands = bigger bets. This may change into being where I just bet on the smaller size vs better players who will likely have a hand he can call with.

So on the other hand if you haven't figured out, I am more likely to size smaller with a value only range and size bigger with a balanced, default game style range, with the exception of having a capped range spot, where I just really pull the trigger. These spots should be much easier to spot as i continue to work on my unexploitative game where the outcome should mean I should be 100x tougher, hopefully just soul crushing stakes in the near future.

January Overview

So January is over and there are some few things I would like to discuss.

First off, lets go into some detailed results:

This week I decided to move up to $10 games since I had alot of free time I thought it would be good to increase the earnings, plus I had a personal vendetta from last year playing these games where I ran like absolute garbage in this stake. 

This time was no different, I started off fairly good and back into the trend from last year with a big soul crushing downswing on Friday. Personally I went through a different type of tilt I'm not to familiar with where I had this thing that Its always the $10 games on 888poker where I just can't catch a break feeling, where I think the recreational players are still the same and the quality of play is no different. However, I also did notice there were a few more regs than the $5 games which is expected but I easily avoided them for the most case, and when I did play them I did pretty well against them. Not the same case against the recreational players. This time I decided to stick it out at the $10 games to try overcome the my personal issues with the stakes and try to get back on track.

Below is a breakdown between the $5 games and the $10 games




As you can see, I ended the month slightly losing at the $10 games but did pretty well in the $5 games.

With a 6.85% ROI in the $5 games I did pretty well but not where I would like to be. Eventually I would want to fix this and will be playing the different levels to fix this win rate to meet up to my standards.

Now lets talk Rakeback and Reward System:

First off, I cashed $21 in rakeback, however this was a combination between December and January, where half the first month in January I was earning 2.5% Rakeback under Bronze status which improved to 4.5% Rakeback under Silver status.

Now me personally, I am very much upset about the reward system and I have been thinking about moving before, slowed down that thought after the Pokerstars changes were made to their loyalty system waiting to see how the rest of the poker site would respond and see if competitors would try to compete for the players who want to grind elsewhere because of this. However, not much happened as expected and I am back to square one where I am highly considering moving elsewhere.

888 Poker to me has the best rewards for MTT players with ton of free money for grabs, a ton of status tournaments etc. but I feel they personally neglect the other type of players but I can't complain too much because their method keeps their games relatively soft.

My main concern about the reward system is for days like I had this weekend where I want to play despite going through a downswing and most of that downswing happened because of the rake. Look at my chip graph, there isn't a dent in the graph (plus the fact that my downswing was the result of being like 34 - 35). At this point its time to make a closing decision on playing elsewhere because personally, I feel with my skill level, I would expect tougher games on the major sites like Pokerstars and full tilt but finding how much of a decline in my winrate + the rakeback rewards offered may prove to actually earn me more money.

It's a very delicate subject  and I do need to highly consider this move for the better of my game.

Here is some slight numbers to put out there for those who may not understand exactly where I am coming from:

Silver Status on 888poker: 4.5%
Lowest level on both Pokerstars/Full Tilt: 10%

Rake Paid in January: $438.30

Rewards:

888poker: $19.72
Pokerstars/Full Tilt: $43.83

Keep in mind, that as I grind higher levels I get higher rewards, and judging by my output I calculated for reaching gold on pokerstars and silver on Full tilt for about 20% rakeback (or more, its hard to pinpoint with their system setup) for: $87.66

A huge difference in that extra earnings, of course though you have to take into consideration that
1. Pokerstars don't have $10 games
2. Rake is actually cheaper on Pokerstars/Full Tilt which affects rake paid
3. Traffic, Pokerstars will probably allow me to get more games in and Full Tilt, I may get less games in.

I scratched Party Poker off of my list, their husng formats just isn't good for me and traffic is pretty low, I do not want to play on the iPoker network ever since I had my account frozen on Titan Poker because they stop taking customers from the Bahamas.

I will make it my goal this week to check into Microgaming Poker Network since I saw that I can get a 30% Rakeback deal somewhere + it has more traffic than Full Tilt so that sounds really good for me.

Session: 20th - 26th

So I've been pretty busy and stressed out with some life stuff, but it didn't stop me from putting in the volume. I've had a steady increase, going through the usual swings one would face in any HUSNG format.

During the couple days, I have realized my aggression from the SB defending, was probably a tad bit higher than I want. I think its because I am still not comfortable nor familiar with the new strategy like I am betting. I devoted my time into fixing this with studying and picking spots where I would want to play a more exploitative style vs my new strategy.

Week Result:

Other than the problem I encountered, my non-showdown winnings have been steadily increasing as well which brings a new dynamic to the tables vs villains that I play frequently.

Overall Result: 

     

I've reached a new peek this week which is obviously a good thing. Graphs looks very pretty and I'm steadily climbing.

Shout out to Vaniaubanii14,

I had an extremely rough day Friday, was down by probably 10 or 11 BIs. Then Vaniaubanii14 came along and he kept playing me. We had a really really long session, at the end of the day I think I stuck him for about 12 buy-ins, even though I didn't win all of it, he brought my winrate up to about even which was really needed for my confidence that day. 

News Update

So first, I want to say that all in all, I am not perfect.

What I meant by that, is upon taking this challenge I considered a lot of things but time management was one of those things, I didn't put much consideration into. With that being said, posting these blogs on a daily basis when I play is something more time consuming than I imagine it would be. To counter this, I will start posting weekly.

This has some merits to it though:

*It will give time for everyone to enjoy the post more and not be cluttered with all kind's of post
*It will allow me to post more news, and other poker related topics as I choose

Other than that, after Study Session #10, I will be stop using Weak Tight to post my hands or at least until they can actually fix those bugs they have. It's pretty annoying to have those bugs such as the Ks keep popping up randomly in my hand history when it's nothing wrong with my hand history, and then there are other bugs I encounter that you don't see. I have emailed them a few times, but the responses have been slow and the problems are just really annoying me.